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🟡 Tropical Disturbance

Disturbance 1

Southwestern Gulf of America: A trough of low pressure in the southwestern Gulf of America is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms.

Formation chance · 48 hours
30%Low
Formation chance · 7 days
70%High

What this means

Southwestern Gulf of America: A trough of low pressure in the southwestern Gulf of America is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Although environmental conditions appear to be marginally conducive, gradual development is becoming more likely, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the middle or latter portion of the week. This system is expected to drift eastward over the next few days, before it turns northward.

Official resources

Last updated 10/5/2026, 2:15:05 PM · Latest advisory 10/5/2026, 11:38:30 AM